As we have done in previous articles, it is essential to determine whether or not a bet has positive expectancy (in other words, is the bet profitable). That’s really all really care about when deciding whether we place a bet or not.
For NFL matchups today (11/10/19), FOX Bet is offering the following “Suport 6 Bet Boost.” Even though this bet is boosted, it is not necessarily a profitable bet. Often times, casinos and sportsbooks will attempt to trick customers into thinking a bet is better than it actually is. Thus, let’s determine whether the bet below is truly a profitable bet, or just a trap to grab our money.
Using the same methodology from previous articles, we will use Vegas Insider Consensus to determine the market-implied, fair probability of the Lions, Saints, Chiefs, Giants, Cardinals & Packers all winning. Using the VI Consensus column, we note the following market implied odds for each for the six NFL matchups in this parlay.
Chiefs vs. Titans (-280, +240), Cardinals vs. Bucs (+190, -230), Giants vs. Jets (-150, +130), Lions vs. Bears (+240, -300), Panthers vs. Packers (+185, -230), Falcons vs. Saints (+600, 900):
Then, using a no-vig calculator, we need to back out the the market implied fair probabilities of each team winning, and we end up with the following:
Chiefs (71.47%), Cardinals (33.10%), Giants (57.98%), Lions (28.17%), Packers (66.51%), Saints (86.30%).
In order for our bet to win, the Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs, Giants, Lions, and Packers all must win. The probability of this happening is 71.47% x 33.10% x 57.98% x 28.17% x 66.51% x 86.30% = 2.2178%.
Although 2.2178% is ultimately just an estimate, it’s as good an estimate as you’ll find, as it represents aggregate market sentiment across the most used sports books globally. While markets are not perfect, they are more right than they are wrong, as the wisdom of the crowd often outperforms even the smartest individuals.
Thus, this NFL parlay is fair (expectancy = 0) at +4408 odds (4408= (100/0.022178)-100). Since FOX Bet is offering this parlay at +3000, when fair is +4408, this bet is nota positive expectancy bet. Thus, don’t bet it! Don’t fall into FOX Bet’s trap of trying to convince you that a bet is “super boosted.”
If you do not get emotional and simply follow the numbers, similar to what we’ve done in this article, then you will make money betting on sports. We don’t usually post about things not to do, but we wanted to give an example on how you can lose money if you’re careless and bet every odds boost.